The Padres had scored 16 runs in their previous six games, and then they go out and top that total in one game Monday night (18-6 over the Mets). Does this mean we can expect Padre hitters to go 19 for 37 every night?
Mark Twain said there are lies, damn lies, and statistics; reminding us all that numbers can deceive.
Yogi Berra said 90 percent of the game is half mental; reminding us all that catchers only need to count up to four.
Despite these cautions, there’s one statistic here in the National League West that doesn’t lie:
+7.
Chainsaw says run differential will catch up to the lucky Dodgers (AP photo courtesy SDNN)
With a win-loss record of 29-22, the second-place Dodgers have a run differential of +7.
Seven games over .500 and they’ve only scored seven more runs than they’ve allowed this season.
The first-place Padres are +54, the third-place Giants are +35, and the fourth-place Rockies are +42 (the last-place Diamondbacks are a disastrous -64).
How are the Dodgers doing it? Oh sure, you get blown out BIG a few times and that tilts the numbers (ask the Mets), and 51 games is a rather small sample size, but come on! Manager Joe Torre can play this shell game only so long. There are only so many walk-off balks in one lifetime. It’s going to catch up.
The Dodgers are a house of cards and their aces are going to fold. The Giants and Rockies pose bigger long-term threats to your first-place Padres.
The other threats to San Diego are internal. Can the Padre arms sustain their stellar team ERA (3.00, second-best in baseball)? The +54 run differential is best in the league, but despite last night’s orgy, only two clubs in the league have a lower team batting average, and only four have scored fewer runs. The team could use another run-producing bat, but to trade for one could cost a pitcher. Robbing Peter to pay Paul.
How much does the Padres’s success have to do with the pitcher-friendly dimensions of Petco Park?
It couldn't be...
If we’re to believe a surly Albert Pujols, not much. Baseball’s best hitter scoffed last week at Lee Hamilton’s suggestion that balls don’t carry in the Gaslamp like they do under the Gateway Arch. Albert said if you make a good swing, it’s a homer in any ballpark.
Yeah right, Albert. Your body language doesn’t lie. After your drive to Petco’s centerfield died at the warning track last Wednesday night, you looked like you just saw Jennifer Aniston drop her bathrobe and she turned out to be a man.
You were stunned, Albert. You thought it was a homer, yet it died in the air just like Hacksaw said. Just because you don’t like bowl haircuts doesn’t mean you have to make stuff up.
Pujols got the "Phil Nevin" look after missing a homer in Petco
It’s a big park and this year’s Padres are buying in. No more Phil Nevin standing on second, scowling towards Kevin Towers’ skybox after his double off the right field wall would’ve been a homer anywhere else.
Yet who can begrudge the power hitter whose livelihood depends on power numbers?
Nobody.
Solution?
Don’t have any power hitters on the roster and you don’t have to worry about it!
Wait a second. Adrian Gonzalez is a power hitter. Mr. Moorad, please ignore previous paragraph.
It’s a damn lie.
Cookie “Chainsaw” Randolph’s columns appear every Tuesday and Friday on 619Sports.Net. For a complete archive of his columns, click here.
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