Seven topics for discussion on the seventh day…
1) It could have been worse. In danger of being swept out of Colorado and giving up sole possession of the NL West heading into the All-Star break, Team Blooper (aka the San Diego Padres) rose up in classic fashion to beat the Rockies 9-7. Scott Hairston had four hits (three broken bats). Aaron Cunningham’s bloop fader in the 8th inning set up the winning rally. And when Rockies reliever Matt Belisle had a 35-foot throw (right in front of him) home to start a 1-2-3 double play and end the 8th, he spiked the ball in the ground like your 6-year-old tee-baller might, letting the tying and go-ahead runs come home.
Instead of panic in the streets of the Gaslamp (only a slight exaggeration), the Padres will now speak confidently about their chances now to hold on in the second half. But while many of the past week’s struggles could easily be chalked up to regression to the mean (could the Padres really keep up the NL’s best road record?), there are warning signs which the San Diego front office should not ignore:
- This offense has no on-base percentage, and eventually, OBP wins out. When you have a lineup filled with .310 on-base percentages, you can’t expect to keep generating rallies out of chalk and bloopers. Hitting with runners in scoring position is historically a luck-based variable. The Padres have had all kinds of RISP luck in the first half of the season. Odds suggest that will not continue over the final 75+ games.
- I asked a simple question of some of the reporters who cover this team on a regular basis during the previous homestand: what would happen if the Padres pitching staff started regularly giving up 3-4 runs? Not struggling, mind you, just pitching at a good-but-not-earth-shaking-elite level? We saw a taste of how that question might be answered over the past week. In hot weather and in more offensively-oriented parks, the Padres have stopped looking like a dominant staff and more like a typical one.
- There’s only one starter in the San Diego rotation with shut-down stuff, and he’s about to be shut down to protect his arm against an innings limit (Mat Latos).
I’m not proclaiming the Padres dead by any means, and they have managed to weave together 51 wins before the All-Star break. But 20 of those 51 wins came in games when they scored 1, 2, or 3 runs. Can they possibly win another 10-15 games like that in the final 2 1/2 months of the season?
Possible trade scenarios and more, 6 topics remain after the jump:
2) One of the most-discussed trade scenarios for the Padres has been to deal from their area of depth and strength, the bullpen. I’ve brought it up myself in the past. Now, with Luke Gregerson struggling, Mike Adams leaving Sunday’s game with an injury…all of a sudden you see how there’s no such thing as pitching depth. You always need more. The Padres have no margin for error in the PEN-intentiary and should immediately abandon any thoughts of moving an arm from the big league roster (if they had any to begin with). It will take minor leaguers to swing a deal.
The Padres need an OBP hitter like David DeJesus to steady their offense in the second half
3) To wit, here’s my new shopping list for Jed Hoyer:
- OBP
- Veteran starter
- LH reliever
People will say “get a big bat to protect Adrian!” People are wrong. This team needs OBP more than Naughty By Nature needed OPP. Leadoff man. Someone to draw a walk. Someone who can add more consistent fuel to the San Diego engine.
Scott Hairston has suggested repeatedly that the Padres will hit much better in the second half, but when you look at career on-base percentages, it’s unlikely that he, or his brother Jerry, or many of the other Padres irregulars will suddenly discover the path to first base.
Previously on the Corey Hart (21 HR, .349 OBP) bandwagon, let me now suggest that David DeJesus (.395 OBP) or someone like him would be the best addition to the San Diego offense.
Veteran starter is more a position of insurance. Jon Garland is the only “been there, done that” starter for the stretch run. There should be concerns about how the LeBlanc-Richard-Correia segment of the rotation is going to stand up under the pressure. Latos is the team stud, but the Padres will treat him like a Faberge egg this year…a good plan for the future, but unsatisfying for fans in 2010. Adding a veteran starter could take a lot of pressure off the pitching staff.
Problem is, the market is heating up, and the prices are going up. Hoyer may be unwilling to spend the price in prospects needed to get 8-10 starts down the stretch out of a Ted Lilly-type starter.
As such, the weekend series in Denver has revealed another need, a more strategic choice which could really help down the stretch in the NL West: a second lefty reliever for Bud Black to use. As effective as Luke Gregerson was against left-handed hitters in the first half, Black would be better served having two southpaws in the ‘pen, allowing him to more aggressively use Joe Thatcher to put out fires. On Friday night, Bud used Thatcher for two batters in the 6th inning, and when the fateful seventh came around, he had no lefty to face Ian Stewart.
Get busy, Jed
A LH reliever should come at a much cheaper cost than a veteran starter or a bat, and could have almost as much strategic significance in September.
Last point on this, and it should be stunningly obvious, but here we go: standing still is not an option. The Padres have the NL West’s best record, but the Rockies are a more complete team, and the Dodgers are 1-2 arms away from overtaking San Diego as well. Bud Black’s excellent managing, a college-style esprit de corps, the most extreme ballpark in the major leagues, and some brilliant individual pitching performances have kept the Padres on top through the first half, but it’s on Jed Hoyer now to complete the job.
4) If you want to say that LeBron is smart for heading to Miami in search of a title, then fine. If you want to hate him for abandoning Cleveland, um, fine but I don’t understand. Who ever said that free agents have to stay put? As soon as players get to select the first team they play for when they enter the league, then I’ll start demanding loyalty in their second choice.
But what’s really irking me is the excuse making, and the easy headlines that make no sense. I’ve heard many a LeBron defender say that his choice of Miami was “all about winning”, and that he “sacrificed” tens of millions of dollars to go to the Heat.
Really? Ever heard of the lack of state taxes in Florida? How much is James saving by going to the Sunshine State? Anyone done the math? How about the money he will make in endorsements if he wins a title? How about the money he can make in China and elsewhere, money he’s not making now, money his “team” has determined he needs a championship in order to mine?
Don’t tell me it’s all about winning. Since the day he entered the NBA, LeBron has been about LeBron, his brand, his ego. Going to Miami and winning titles grows the brand and grows the ego. It’s all part of the plan.
5) I am going to miss the World Cup. While today’s final between Spain and the Netherlands was an underwhelming display of caution, yellow cards and missed chances (didn’t it remind you of Game 7 of the NBA Finals this year?), the overall tournament was outstanding.
Every time the World Cup is staged, there are a number of predictable American media reactions. The lazy folks who have never liked soccer, never watched soccer, and never even tried to understand soccer come out with their pooh-pooh columns, talk about how they would change the game to make it better satisfy their personal wants and needs (make it 7-on-7! eliminate offsides!), and then announce that they don’t care anyway. On the flip side, soccer enthusiasts write the “is this the time?” column dreaming of how the U.S. will start treating the “beautiful game” with the passion and intensity reserved for Europe and South America.
Allow me to avoid both extremes. Soccer will never take the place of the NFL, NBA, or MLB in the American sports hierarchy, nor should it. But I saw plenty of anecdotal evidence that world-class national team soccer has at least wedged its way into our sports consciousness. From people planning World Cup viewing parties for a Spain-Netherlands final (people who were neither Spanish nor Dutch, mind you) to the bandwagon hysteria that all-too-briefly surrounded the American side, this World Cup was different from any other in my lifetime.
We will never start treating the MLS like something its not (an important league) or putting Everton-Man U highlights in the first segment of SportsCenter, but if the U.S. is at the point where we will follow and take interest in the world’s biggest sporting event, that seems like plenty of progress to me.
6) The delight of soccer is that it is a poor man’s sport, much like basketball. To play soccer, you don’t need shoulder pads, or bats and balls, or ice skates…heck you don’t even need a real field or a goal. Just a ball, some friends, a relatively flat pitch to run on, and something to mark where the goal should be.
Former German coach Jurgen Klinsmann (possible future Team USA coach) had a fascinating take during ESPN’s coverage of Team USA, talking about what it will take for the U.S. to develop a true world-class player. Paraphrasing, Klinsmann said that in the United States, we’ve got our soccer training all wrong. Players train to go to school, play in college, and get an education.
Everywhere else in the world, soccer is to the young, urban player what the NFL or NBA is to the young, urban American: a ticket out of poverty and into the limelight. A chance to make real money and take care of your family. Many try and fail, but the dream remains the same: I will learn this game, I will become a star, and I will become rich.
You just can’t get rich playing soccer in the United States. You can get rich playing football, basketball, baseball, etc.
I’m not suggesting Mark Cuban buys FC Dallas and starts signing U.S. hopefuls to hundred million dollar deals…just pointing out the challenge.
7) It was great to see Philip Rivers with a football in his hands this weekend. Congrats to Isaiah Capoocia and Hunter Cox, the two winners of our Philip Rivers Football Camp camperships. I heard from Hunter’s father Tony on Sunday:
“Rivers just threw my kid a 25 yard bomb down the middle during a scrimmage and the look on Hunter’s face when he caught it was priceless!”
Awesome. With futbol complete, our football dreams are about to begin again.
Craig Elsten -
Chainsaw -
