Moments after the Rockies had sliced the Padres lead in the NL West to a single game with a 4-2 victory over the Friars on Saturday evening in Denver, the question was posed to Padres’ skipper Bud Black.
“Are you guys going to panic if the Rockies catch you in the standings?”
(Quick thought here: One of the dumbest questions EVER asked of any manager. Certainly we expected Black to say: “Yes. We will fold-up like a $2-dollar suitcase. After the All-Star break, we plan to get out of the way so the real contenders can take over the division.”)
Of course, on Sunday in the final game before the break, the Padres showed exactly why they figure to stay in the pennant race until the end. On the verge of being swept by Colorado and thereby having to share first-place, the Friars scored two in the 7th, two in the 8th and two more in the 9th to defeat the Rox, 9-7, maintaining a division lead they’ve held for most of the season.
Sure the Dodgers are just two games back, and coming off back-to-back seasons in which they advanced to the National League Championship Series. Sure the Rockies are also two back, and have steamrolled the division in the second half twice in the last three years to reach the postseason. Sure the Giants are right there as well, just four back and ready to pounce.
Surely, there’s no way the pop-gun Padres, who swing like they’re carrying wet noodles with them to the plate, can withstand the pressure and hold off this mighty triumvirate. Sure. Sure. And sure.
The way they talk around baseball, perhaps the Padres should just phone-in the final 12 weeks of the season and get back to that rebuilding thing everybody’s been waiting for. Only, to completely discount what the Friars have accomplished so far in 2010 would be unfair. And unwise.
After all, no team in baseball is better at winning games because opposing pitchers (hello, Matt Belisle) give them two runs and throw away games on simple, bases-loaded ground balls back to the mound. This Padres team, if it has nothing else, has carried around a championship-winning mojo since the season started.
If the Dodgers, Rockies or Giants want to pass them in the second half, they’re going to have a lot of work to do. So while the Padres and their fans wonder about an additional bat or arm (preferably a left-handed relief arm), let’s take a closer look at what the teams who are supposed to knock them off will be up against.
Dodgers (49-39, two games back): For those who thought perhaps Joe Torre would mail in what many believe will be his final season as Dodgers manager, keep this in mind: Torre’s teams are always in the postseason. And the Hall of Fame skipper has kept L.A. afloat this season despite several key injuries and an unsettled starting rotation.
His best work came in his dealings withmercurial outfielder Matt Kemp, sitting Kemp down until the erstwhile superstar-in-waiting got his head on straight. Not too many managers could have sent a power bat to the bench and received solid results. But Kemp finished the first half strong, with 16 HR’s and 15 SB’s. If he stays focused, he’ll drive in over 100 runs and dramatically improve on his .261 batting average. With Andre Eithier, James Loney, a healthy Rafael Furcal and a returning Manny Ramirez, L.A. will score enough runs to win the West.
The key, however, will be supplementing a shaky starting rotation — by far the worst among the four contenders. After Clayton Kershaw (9-4, 2.96) the Dodgers can count on, what? Chad Billingsley (7-4, 4.14) and Hiroki Kuroda (7-7, 3.87) have been less-than-stellar so far. Vicente Padilla (4-2, 4.04) makes those who bleed blue nervous every time out. John Ely (4-7, 4.63) has faded badly.
L.A. must get another starter. And whoever it is they get needs an 8-2 type second half for Torre to go post season dancing once again.
Rockies (49-39, two games back): One bad throw by Belisle away from perhaps tying the Padres for first place at the break, Colorado has come on strong of late. And the Rox have done it without All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who’s due back in two or three weeks.
Jeff Francis and Jorge De La Rosa, two key starters, missed most of the first half, as did closer Huston Street. Starting center fielder Dexter Fowler and starting catcher Chris Iannetta were both sent to the minor leagues for long stretches. Brad Hawpe was injured, and now franchise staple Todd Helton is on the disabled list.
But here the Rockies are, right in the mix. The big question is what to do with Helton (2 HR’s, 16 RBI’s, .246) when he comes back. Can they sit their legend on the bench, and move Hawpe to first base? Do they trade for Florida’s Dan Uggla and put him on first?
Maybe even some better questions: Can Ubaldo Jimenez duplicate his first half and finish with a record of 30-2? Can journeyman Miguel Olivo (11-42, .325) put up All-Star numbers the rest of the way? Can Carlos Gonzales, Seth Smith and Ian Stewart continue to get the job done against lefties?
A lot of folks believe in Colorado, but let it be known that this team’s middle-relief is suspect. The Rox have lost a lot of leads so far in 2010. They continue with that trend, the second-half surge everybody is expecting may fall flat.
Giants (47-41, four games back): Torre is a Hall of Famer. Colorado’s Jim Tracy is the defending NL Manager of the Year. The Padres’ Bud Black is the current odds-on favorite to win it this year.
But let’s not forget about Bruce Bochy, a previous Manager of the Year winner himself. Bochy’s team should stay in the race based on his two aces alone, two-time defending Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum (a below-par 9-4, 3.16 first half) and Matt Cain (only 6-8?). Neither was their usual dominant self in the first half, yet San Francisco is still very much in contention.
The Giants also have Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez and up-and-coming rookie Madison Bumgarner. That’s five solid starters and an All-Star closer in Brian Wilson to boot. Nobody has won more low-scoring games than Bochy has in the past decade. (Not an official stat, but going back to his successful Padre days, it sure seems like it).
Now, the question is whether or not San Fran’s offense can give the arms some help. First baseman Aubrey Huff (17-54, .295) has been one of baseball’s biggest free agent steals. Freddie Sanchez is a former batting champion. Aaron Rowand and Edgar Renteria have always been consistent big league hitters.
The key may be whether or not fan-favorite third baseman Pablo Sandoval can return to his 2009 form in the second half. Sandoval nearly carried the Giants to the post season single-handedly last season, but is coming off a putrid first half (6 HR’s, 34 RBI’s, .263). If Sandoval can help give Bochya few more runs to work with, San Francisco might be right there at the wire.
– Ello
Craig Elsten -
Chainsaw -
