Tired of reading “what should the Padres do at the trade deadline” columns? Me too.
Most such columns have been rooted in fantasy to begin with (Cliff Lee! Adam Dunn!). Others are filled with pictures and stats, sound and fury signifying nothing.
When it comes to making a major move, Jed Hoyer's hands are tied
We don’t know how much money Padres owner Jeff Moorad has opened up for GM Jed Hoyer to use. We do know the farm system of the Padres is not deep enough to provide the tools for a major acquisition. We also know the 25-man roster is lacking a position of depth from which to trade.
So while talk show hosts and message board sycophants can continue to bandy about every name they wish, and the national experts provide us with thirty “heard this” tweets on Twitter, I’m here to offer Hoyer a simpler line of thought.
What’s the one thing you can realistically do which would have the biggest impact on the 2010 Padres?
(Hope you’re with me Jed, I’m going to make the next few days much easier for you.)
My answer will be after the jump. First, let me knock down a couple of your possible answers to the above question:
There are moves which could help the Padres win a World Series, and moves which could help them solidify their playoff berth. I don’t see a World Series move as being available to the Padres.
The Padres don't have the cash or prospects needed to get a true impact player like Roy Oswalt
Such a move would have been to get a top-of-the-rotation starter. Any starter Hoyer could trade for who would slot in behind Latos and Garland is not worth the Padres’ time, money or prospects. The difference between Ted Lilly (for example) and Kevin Correia is not big enough to add more than a win (maybe) to the Padres’ season total. Come playoff time, such a move would be cosmetic.
Roy Oswalt is the only available workhorse ace, and for the Padres’ purposes, he’s not available. There’s no way Moorad takes on an eight-figure addition to the payroll. Besides, Oswalt’s not Cliff Lee. I’m not positive he would have a Kevin Brown-type effect on the rotation.
The biggest hue and cry has been for a slugging outfielder. But power (or lack of power) is not the Padres’ major offensive issue. The problem is on base percentage, or lack thereof. David DeJesus, center fielder of the Royals (.396 OBP) would have been a perfect fit, but he injured his thumb and is out for the season.
Philly’s Jayson Werth (.383 OBP) is reportedly being shopped, but the Phillies want a major-league impact player in return, which the Padres obviously cannot provide. Regardless, Werth’s high strikeout rate and questionable aptitude for Petco Park would make him a risky acquisition. Similarly, the price tag for Milwaukee’s Corey Hart is too high, and you wonder how he would fit into Petco.
So, no ace starter, no outfielder, no “wow” move for Padres fans to get excited about. Still with me, Jed? Here’s the simplest, most doable move which could push San Diego into the NL West championship:
Jed, go get yourself a second lefty reliever.
It doesn’t have to be Scott Downs of the Blue Jays, who’s being shopped at an overly high price tag. You don’t even have to make the move by Saturday’s non-waiver deadline. If you want to wait for someone to become available on waivers, by all means, wait.
Go find me the modern day Bob McClure, a one-batter lefty specialist
But a second lefty should be at the top of Hoyer’s economical shopping list. No other player (not another starter, not another position player) would add to the Padres’ strategic arsenal more than the ability to neutralize key left-handed bats in upcoming NL West struggles.
Let’s take, for example…last night. Bud Black is getting toasted on the radio and in the message boards for not lifting Jon Garland last night with the bases loaded and two away in the seventh inning. He had Joe Thatcher–his only lefty reliever–warmed up but didn’t bring him in to face Andre Ethier. Garland gave up the hit, and the Dodgers won the game.
Black made a gut call on Tuesday night. He said the game “was Jon’s to win”. But it’s a lot easier to come to a gut-based decision when your strategic options are limited.
Right now, Buddy only has one southpaw bullet to fire out of his bullpen. The temptation to hold Thatcher for the “best possible” spot to put him in has to be overwhelming. You don’t want to “waste” him on just one batter, one matchup.
But that’s what a lefty specialist is supposed to do, he’s supposed to be used to get just one guy out. The key guy. It’s a strategic hammer which must be wielded in the type of close, low-scoring games the Padres play.
Every team in the NL West has multiple dangerous lefty bats (like Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez)
Give Bud Black a second lefty, and in my mind, he takes out Garland without hesitation on Tuesday night for Thatcher. Knowing he would have a second southpaw to use later (against James Loney, or to turn around Rafael Furcal, etc), Black could fearlessly insert Thatcher into any specialist situation.
Do you think this isn’t going to come up again over the next two months? Over and over and over?
Let’s say the Giants are in town. It’s the 6th inning and Kevin Correia has two on, two out for Travis Ishikawa. Do you bring in Thatcher now? Or do you need to save him for later, when Aubrey Huff might be up in a key spot? Or when you need to turn Pablo Sandoval around to the right side?
How about the Rockies? When do you use Thatcher? For every Carlos Gonzalez at-bat, there’s an important AB waiting for Seth Smith…or Jason Giambi…or Ian Stewart…and so on, and so on.
This entire division is populated with dangerous left-handed bats. The flexibility given by adding a second left-handed reliever outweighs any other move Jed Hoyer could make to improve the Padres.
San Diego employs a seven-man bullpen, and they’ve even expanded to eight relievers on occasion. Why have so many guys down there when most of them do the same thing? Once Thatcher is gone, do you think it makes it tougher on Bruce Bochy or Joe Torre to see any one of the random right-handers coming out of the Padres’ pen? Mujica or Webb? Frieri or Gregerson?
The Padres do not have a “ride ‘em cowboy” rotation either. As fatigue sets in for young pitchers like Clayton Richard, Wade LeBlanc and “Senor Sneeze” Mat Latos, Black is going to need to be willing to go to his deep and versatile bullpen earlier and earlier in these close games. Give him a second lefty, and a world of strategic options become readily available.
Another simple but important move would be to go get middle infield help. Everth Cabrera is a nice young player, but having a Gwynn-Cabrera-pitcher bottom of the order gives new meaning to the phrase “anemic offense”. Forget Murderer’s Row, this is Misdeameanor Alley.
ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweeted yesterday that the Padres have inquired into the services of infielders Jeff Keppinger (Houston) and Ryan Theriot (Chicago Cubs). Either would fit the bill as a possible .280 hitting stabilizer for the infield, allowing Jerry Hairston Jr. to supplant Cabrera in the lineup at short.
So there it is. Nothing sexy, nothing exciting…in fact, if Hoyer does what I ask, the likely reaction from Padres fans will be anger and despair. Where’s our big bat, they will cry? Where’s our ace starter?
But by adding a lefty reliever and a backup infielder, the Padres will do just enough to hold off the Giants and Dodgers and win the NL West. Still with me, Jed? Now, go work the phones!
Craig Elsten -
Chainsaw -
