With their NL West lead in jeopardy, certainly the last thing the Padres must worry about is pitching. Just look at the numbers. The best team ERA in all of baseball and just about any other stat you can throw out there.
The smart thinking is that if the Padres are going to complete their surprising run from preseason cellar-dwellers to division champions at season’s end, it’s going to be up to the offense to pick up the pace.
And, of course, boy genius General Manger Jed Hoyer took care of that by acquiring veteran swingers Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick at the trade deadline. What he didn’t do was make any additions to the pitching staff. And why would he?
Well…here’s why:
Jon Garland at home 6-2, 2.69 ERA. Garland on the road 4-5, 4.76 ERA.
Wade LeBlanc at home 2-5, 2.67 ERA. LeBlanc on the road 3-5, 4.86 ERA.
Kevin Correia at home 4-5, 4.52 ERA. Correia on the road 3-2, 5.98 ERA.
And guess what? The Padres in the midst of a stretch where they’re playing 17 of 20 games on the road.
(Quick note here: We realize that just about any pitcher in baseball is going to have a better ERA at Petco Park than he is pitching anywhere else. And we have several baseball researchers that contribute to this very web page who can — and probably will — look much deeper into the stats and eventually spin them any way they want).
However, the fact that three of the Padres’ starting five have ERA’s that are more than 1 1/2-runs higher away from home — while Garland and LeBlanc both have more than 2-run differentials — is eye-opening at the very least.
Especially when one considers that the 2010 NL Western Division championship may very well be decided over the next three weeks — while the Padres are on the road. Go ahead and think it’s going to up to the Friars’ offense to win this thing. To me, it’s going to come down to a group of pitchers that everybody seems to think are un-hittable…but that in truth have been no better than mediocre away from the friendly confines of Petco.
Surely Hoyer was aware of this when he decided to go for bats at the trade deadline. And while he has been properly patted on the back for his perceived wizardry, is it possible that he was looking in the wrong direction?
There were many — me included — who thought, though the statistics didn’t show it, that the Padres’ anemic-looking offense might be able to scrape by down the stretch. The rub, of course, being that the pitching remained top-notch.
But the pitching, at least at the front end, has actually been far from spectacular. Garland and LeBlanc have shown throughout the course of this season that while they may be stellar at home, they can hardly be counted on to shut down opponents on the road. Correia has been poor home and away. Clayton Richard has been solid, but he’s heading into the uncharted territory of a pennant race. And Mat Latos, brilliant as he has been, must be monitored for fear of wearing out his young arm.
The starting pitching is going to have to be better. Plain and simple.
So what to do? Does Tim Stauffer get a couple of shots in the starting rotation? Does minor leaguer Cory Luebke get a late-season call-up? Do the Padres cross their fingers (and every other body part) hoping that Chris Young can ride in and save the day?
The guess is that in order to cement his status as Boy Wonder and help carry his team to the wire, Hoyer is going to have to ring-up one more deal down the stretch. Another veteran starter is going to have to be acquired — somewhere, somehow.
Unless Hoyer really thinks that the group he has will be able to get the job done on its own.
The true test starts now. Between now and August 27, the Padres play series’ against bottom-feeders like Arizona, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Milwaukee. The Giants, during the same stretch, face challenges from Atlanta, St. Louis, Philadelphia and Cincinnati.
A lead must be opened up before the schedule reverses course in September. But the Padres will be facing all of their “easy” opponents over the next three weeks — on the road.
– Ello
Craig Elsten -
Chainsaw -
