Seven thoughts on the seventh day…
1) Ever since they excited their fan base with the acquisitions of Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick, the San Diego Padres have scuffled their way to a 3-6 record. It’s not time to panic, or even get overly concerned…after all, these Padres have been living baseball’s version of a charmed life most of the year. Every team goes through multiple rough patches in a season, and the Padres have barely had a hiccup all season long.
Bud Black should be concerned about how his offense has changed
What is of concern to this observer is how the team’s offensive style has changed. It’s something I noted at the time of the deals…San Diego became a more hit-dependent offense by adding two players who will likely combine for zero steals this year.
Since their trades, the Padres have attempted just four steals in nine games. Jerry Hairston stole second base in the first inning of Tejada’s first game. Will Venable has a pair of steals. And Yorvit Torrealba was caught once.
The natural response to this is “you can’t steal first base”. And it’s true. But it’s not like the Padres added a pair of on-base machines in Tejada and Ludwick. These guys are .340-.350 OBP players. And San Diego has struggled to reach base all year.
The thing is, this team maximized their offensive opportunities as well or better than any major league team I’ve seen in a long time. Every ground ball seemed to advance a runner instead of being a double play. Every blooper sent someone scampering home from second base. The Padres are better built now to swing with the big boys…but that was never their gameplan for success. They’re trying something different now.
More Padres talk, plus the Aztecs and a 20-year retrospective on San Diego sports after the jump:
Losses in Arizona are missed opportunities for the Padres to cement their playoff position
2) Ello and I are on the same page when handicapping the Padres’ playoff hopes: don’t worry about September, look at this current stretch of 20 games. Circle August 27th on the calendar. When San Diego opens a weekend series against the Phillies on that day, they need to be five games clear of the Giants in the NL West.
San Francisco is in the middle of a four-game set at Atlanta, the team with the best home record in the National League. The Giants will continue through a rough schedule this month, with a road trip to Philadelphia and St. Louis, and a home series against the NL Central-leading Reds.
The Padres, meanwhile, get Pittsburgh at home this week. After a showdown series next weekend in San Francisco, the Friars get to lick their wounds in Milwaukee and Chicago before coming home to face the lowly Diamondbacks again.
Come August 27th, the script flips. The Giants are the ones who get to enjoy nine games against Arizona in the final five weeks of the year. The Brewers and Cubs show up on San Francisco’s schedule in September, while the Padres have to wrestle with St. Louis and Cincinnati.
Ten games remain head-to-head between the Padres and Giants, including the final weekend of the regular season. It might all come down to those last three games. To avoid cutting it that close, San Diego needs to use these next three weeks to build a buffer.
3)
Clayton Richard is one of many Padres who have struggled lately on the mound
I keep going back to my friend Joe Sheehan’s column at the All-Star break, the one in which he predicted the Padres’ second-half demise. Keep in mind: I’ve known Joe for years, and when he picks against you, it’s usually a good thing. However, one line in the story keeps popping up in my mind. Joe predicted Jed Hoyer’s moves to improve the offense at shortstop and in the outfield. However, he said:
“The gains achieved on offense, though, pale in comparison to the losses on the other side of the ledger, as an overachieving rotation stumbles down the stretch.”
The Padres won 20(!!) games in the season’s first half scoring 1,2 or 3 runs. They are 1-8 in such games in the second half.
The Padres’ team ERA has risen every month so far this season:
April: 2.91
May: 3.08
June: 3.30
July: 3.70
August: 4.27
I think it’s fair to say if that trend continues, the Padres will not make the playoffs.
Of the starters in the rotation, only Jon Garland has thrown a 200-inning season in the major leagues. Richard, LeBlanc and Latos are all going through their first-ever playoff push. Regression is not just possible, it’s eminently predictable.
Bud Black can offset his rotation’s issues by more aggressively employing his bullpen, and I’ve been impressed in the past week to see Bud get more proactive in terms of lifting pitchers and going for situational matchups with his relievers. (This is why I wanted to see the Padres get a second lefty reliever so much) But there’s only so far you can go down that road before the bullpen starts to wear down as well.
Throw in the innings restrictions the front office wants to place on Mat Latos, and you’ve got yourself a sticky situation. The Padres’ primary strength is gradually fading, their secondary strength (the defense) has been dropped a peg with Tejada at short, and the team’s altered offense might not be strong enough to make up the difference.
4)
Brady Hoke's fire is fueling a turnaround at SDSU
Enough baseball. I love the grand old game, but the upcoming football season has me excited for the first time in recent memory.
No, not the Chargers. I’m talking Aztecs football!
Brady Hoke is building a true program on Montezuma Mesa, folks. He will get SDSU into a bowl game this year. I look at their schedule and see at least six wins, with a possibility for a seventh (if the Aztecs can beat Air Force at the Q). Just reaching a bowl game would be cause for celebration among long-suffering Aztecs fans.
But not for the Aztecs football team. They are setting their sights much higher.
“We’ve only had one focus (all summer), and that’s winning the MWC championship,” said senior wide receiver DeMarco Sampson during Aztecs football media day on Friday.
Hearing such bold words had me scrambling for a preseason Top-25 list. Yep, there’s TCU, picked 3rd in the country. Yep, TCU’s still in the Mountain West. And there’s SDSU, picked to finish 6th in conference. OK, maybe the boys are getting a bit ahead of themselves.
But, while in the Chuck Long era such words would be cause for a derisive snort, Brady Hoke is uprooting the culture of mediocrity on Montezuma Mesa.
It started last year, when Hoke blasted his team after a close home loss to BYU. A member of the Aztecs’ administration agreed with me on Friday when I told him that if Chuck Long had been coaching that game, he would have blubbered his way through the postgame press conference filled with tears of joy.
Hoke came in red-faced and furious. Competitive losses aren’t interesting to this man in the least. On that night, I knew things were different around here.
Either Hoke will lead his team to a MWC championship down the road, or he will be lured away to a higher-profile job. I don’t see any middle ground.
5)
Empty seats do not lend themselves to a home-field advantage for the Aztecs
To keep Hoke here, and accelerate the Aztecs’ improvement curve, it’s incumbent upon San Diego sports fans to support this team and this program. SDSU football tickets are cheap. The conference is strong. The Aztecs have to encounter fierce road venues everywhere they travel in the Mountain West. It’s about time opposing teams look at Qualcomm Stadium as a road game and not a neutral site.
Get behind Aztecs football this year, go out and support the team. They aren’t going to be world beaters just yet, but I promise you the journey will be worth it. For the first time in decades, this program is going somewhere.
6) Today is my 20-year high school reunion. Yes, I’m old now. First you had the Junior Prom, then the Senior Prom…this is the Mid-Life Crisis Prom. Whee.
It did get me thinking about 1990. What was the state of San Diego sports 20 years ago? A quick check…
![jack_mckeon_padres[1]](http://619sports.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/jack_mckeon_padres1.jpg "jack_mckeon_padres[1]")
Padres: The 1990 Padres finished 75-87, and “welcomed” the Tom Werner “Gang of 15″ ownership group into the fold in September. Jack McKeon started the year as manager/GM, and finished the year with neither job. McKeon was replaced as manager by Greg Riddoch mid-season, and was fired as GM at the end of the year and replaced by Joe McIlvaine. Bip Roberts and Tony Gwynn tied with a .309 average, while Joe Carter led the Padres with 115 RBI, and cranky Jack Clark walked 104 times. Ed Whitson’s 14-9 record and 2.60 ERA carried the pitching staff.
Really, if you think about the talent on the ‘90 Padres, it’s almost sick. Robby Alomar, Joe Carter, Tony Gwynn, Jack Clark, Fred Lynn, Benito Santiago, Garry Templeton…75 wins?
Oh, Mark Grant was on the pitching staff. Never mind, I get it now…
Chargers: Bobby Beathard was named GM in 1990, which was pretty much the highlight of an otherwise forgettable Chargers season. The Dan Henning-led Bolts posted a 6-10 record, led by Billy Joe “Overthrow” Tolliver at quarterback, and Marion Butts (1,225 rushing yards) at tailback. The next time you get angry at Philip Rivers for an interception, just remember: you could have Tolliver, backed up by Marc Vlasic and John Friesz. And once, you did.
Dan McGwire was an Aztecs great, but a flop in Seattle
Aztecs: Led by Dan McGwire, SDSU finished 6-5, but as is so often the case with Aztecs football, the biggest memory from 1990 is that of a close loss. SDSU finished the year with a 30-28 home loss to 2nd ranked Miami at the Q, a game which featured McGwire throwing for 323 yards and two touchdowns. There was a brawl late in the fourth quarter (these were the “thug” Hurricanes of the Dennis Erickson era), and Andy Trakas earned himself a permanent spot in Aztecs negative folklore by missing three field goals in the fourth quarter, from 54, 47 and 38 yards. McGwire would go on to become one of the worst picks in Seattle Seahawks draft history.
Sockers: In their first season in the MSL, the Sockers went 34-18 and won their third of five consecutive championships. Average attendance at the Sports Arena was 7,231 per game. Brian Quinn was named championship MVP, Victor Nogueira and Kevin Crow were first-team All-Stars, and a rookie named Paul Wright took to the pitch for the first time in San Diego. 20 years later, Wright would help the new Sockers to their first PASL crown.
The more things change, the more they stay the same…
7) I’d like to welcome Dave Evenson into the 619 Sports family as our new videographer. Dave joined me at Chargers and Aztecs camp on Friday for the videos you saw over the weekend, and he will be a big part of our coverage of all the fall sports. As we have grown and evolved as a San Diego sports website, I’ve wanted to do more and more online video, and Dave is going to help us take the next step toward even higher quality coverage. Welcome Dave, I thank you for your generous help…but the fans will thank you even more!
Craig Elsten -
Chainsaw -
