The Safe Money Is On Tim Stauffer To Open The Season As the Padres No. 5 Starter

PEORIA, Ariz. — First Mat Latos threw, and he threw well. Then Wade LeBlanc took over, and he threw maybe even a little bit better.

The No. 5 spot in the Padres rotation is up for grabs this spring, and Manager Bud Black likes to see the competition: “When it’s all over,” he said, “somebody’s going to be (upset).”

And it could be both Latos and LeBlanc. Though both looked quite worthy of the job based on the way they pitched here Monday night in a 7-1 victory over the San Francisco Giants. Latos started and retired the side in the first inning on seven pitches. He finished up four comfortable innings, allowing just one run (on a bouncing, wrong-way double down the right-field line) and two hits. LeBlanc followed with four shutout innings, cruising through a parade of mostly-back up San Franciscans.

Black liked everything he saw.

“Mat’s ball was exploding in there,” the Padres’ skipper observed. “He had good stuff, and good movement.”

And LeBlanc?

“Really good command of the fastball and the change-up. Those are the two pitches for him, and they’re both working well right now. If he continues to locate the fastball in and out, and then drops the change in there, it’s good stuff.”

So there’s the good news for Latos, last year’s potential phenom who finished 4-5 with a 4.52 ERA, and for LeBlanc, tabbed in recent years as a future contributor who’s 5-5 with a 5.05 ERA at the big-league level in parts of two seasons. This spring Latos has thrown 13 innings and allowed just three runs. LeBlanc has pitched 13 innings, allowing two runs.

Now here’s the bad news: former first-round pick Tim Stauffer probably has the inside track for the No. 5 job over both of them. Though his big league resume over parts of four seasons shows just eight wins (against 14 losses) and a career ERA of 5.15 in 31 starts, Stauffer is out of options, meaning that if the Padres want to send him back to the minor leagues he would have to pass through waivers first.

Being as Stauffer posted a credible 3.58 ERA last season (and a 4-7 record in 14 starts), most feel he would be snapped up quickly by another major league club. One big league scout told me Monday night that “Stauffer would never make it through waivers because so many teams are looking for a solid No. 5 starter.”

So what should the Padres do? Keep Stauffer (5 innings, 2 runs allowed this spring) on the big club and send down Latos and LeBlanc? Or go with Latos or LeBlanc and risk losing Stauffer? Before you say, “How about giving the No. 5 spot to Latos and using LeBlanc and Stauffer in relief?” keep this in mind: Stauffer has never pitched in relief anywhere. (LeBlanc potentially could be kept as a long-man, though Latos is a starter only).

The safe thing to do would be to open the season with Stauffer. Perhaps use LeBlanc some in long-relief. Send Latos down for a big more seasoning. Right-hander Sean Gallagher, obtained last season from Oakland in the Scott Hairston trade, complicates things even more because he too, like Stauffer, is out of options.

I say forget about what the safe thing to do is. If Latos gives you the best chance to be successful as the No. 5 starter, go with him. If it’s LeBlanc, then hand him the ball. If Stauffer’s the guy, then he’s the guy. The point is don’t select your No. 5 starter based on which guy has options and which guy doesn’t.

If Stauffer loses the battle, he loses the battle. If you lose him to a waiver claim, you lose him. I get tired of teams making decisions based on things other than performance. You can spin your wheels for a long time putting together your ballclub that way. Anyway, even if Stauffer is snapped up somewhere, it’s not like we’re talking about a future Cy Young Award winner here.

Latos, it seems to me, has the most “upside,” whatever the hell that is. He’s been lights-out in the minors and faired nicely getting his feet wet at the end of last season. Sure Stauffer finally showed some flashes down the stretch of why the Padres made him a No. 1 pick, but Latos seems like the guy who has a chance to be a future star. Let’s start finding out.

LeBlanc could be a nice long-man from the left side. Gallagher can eat up some relief innings from the right side. I wouldn’t run the risk of losing him. The Padres have other potential young arms like Aaron Poreda and Cesar Carillo just in case Stauffer must depart.

Sure, you can never have enough pitching, but every now and again, you have to part with an arm to make room for another. Chris Young, Jon Garland, Kevin Correia, Clayton Richard and Mat Latos should open the year as the starting five.

– Ello

On the surface, it seems like a very tame spring training for the San Diego Padres.  Just about every position battle is already decided, you could practically write out the 25-man roster today, and it seems unlikely that Adrian Gonzalez will be traded anytime soon.

But could these calm waters be roiled by future drama?  Is Bud Black being set up for a fall with false expectations?  And might this be the BEST time to move Gonzalez?  Chris and Craig talk Padres baseball in their latest podcast:

Download audio file (030810-padres-spring.mp3)

Each year the team at MadFriars.com comes up with a list of the Padres’ Top 20 prospects.  This year, Simon Castro and Jaff Decker head the list of twenty prospects who MadFriars believes will have the greatest potential to impact the future of the Padres organization.

But where’s last year’s #1 pick, Donavan Tate?  And how did last year’s #1 prospect, Cedric Hunter, fall off this year’s list altogether?  After the jump, you can read the MadFriars prospect list.  Below, listen to John Conniff from MadFriars.com as he joins Craig and Chris to break down the Padres’ farm system in a companion podcast:

Download audio file (030410-padres-prospects.mp3)

MadFriars Top 20 for 2010

With Jason McLeod taking over as the head of the San Diego Padres’ scouting and minor league development he will inherit a system that has substantially improved each year since the last change in 2005.

A quick note on the rankings; no player that missed most, if not all, of 2009 or is projected to miss all of 2010 was eligible to be ranked.

The best way to read this ranking, or really any article on this subject, is try to find what the players do well and what they need to improve upon; which can cause them to rise or fall in the future.  As anyone who has followed the Padres’ organization is aware, this could be a very different list next year.

1. Simon Castro, Starting Pitcher/RHP

After Mat Latos, Castro was the best pitching prospect for San Diego in 2009.  The 6’5” Dominican has a big two-seam fastball and his four-seamer touches 94 to 95, but now, as opposed to in years past, he has a much better idea of where it is going along a developing change and slider.  He doesn’t have the velocity or command of Latos yet, but he has improved by leaps and bounds each year.

2 Jaff Decker, OF

A supplemental first round pick in the 2008 draft, Decker,19, finished first in on-base and second in slugging percentages in the Midwest League.  Many scouts have expressed doubts about not only Decker’s ability to become more athletic but to maintain what he has now. Decker is a truly advanced hitter that is a much better all-around player than given credit for.

3 James Darnell, 3b

Another product of the very strong 2008 draft, Darnell destroyed the Midwest and Cal Leagues with a combined fifty-nine extra base hits and a .459 on-base percentage. His defense, particularly the accuracy of his strong arm at third base, is the big negative many see with his game. If he can find a position in the field, he has a true impact bat with plus tools.

4 Cory Luebke, Starting Pitcher, LHP

The 6’4” Luebke relies on a good two-seam fast ball that comes in around 88-92, mixed in with a slider and improving change.  He doesn’t have a true plus pitch but his success at future levels will be determined by his ability to improve his secondary pitches as much as his fastball developed this year. He profiles as a middle of the rotation starter.

5 Logan Forsythe, 3b

After stroking the ball extremely well in the Instructional League, Forsythe followed with an outstanding year in High-A Lake Elsinore.  Promoted in mid-season his power slowed down in the Texas League, particularly at home, hitting .246/.324/.323. A solid all-around player, the only real question is if he can hit enough at third, especially with the competition in front and behind him.

6 Edinson Rincon, 3b

Rincon, 19, may have the highest ceiling of all third basemen after hitting .300/.415/.468 in Eugene. The most impressive aspect of his game is patience, which is not often seen in a young Latin American player. The big downside was 22 errors in 70 games and his ability to stay in the infield moving up.

7 Lance Zawadski, SS/2b/3b

Zawadski took a big step forward showing the potential five-tool talent that the switch-hitter possesses. Eighteen extra-base hits in thirty-six games caught everyone’s attention in the Cal League before being promoted to San Antonio, where he finished among the team leaders in extra-base hits and on-base percentage.  He needs to cut down on his strikeouts and although he has a terrific arm, his footwork and balance must improve.

8 Wynn Pelzer, Starting Pitcher/RHP

Pelzer is the pitcher everyone believes is going to be better than he has shown so far, and so far has been pretty good.  In Lake Elsinore he struck out nearly a batter an inning and had a 147/59 K/BB ratio. He combines a moving two-seam fastball with a wipeout slider.  How fast his change-up can catch up with his other pitches will determine not only how quickly he can make the majors; but whether it will be as a starter or reliever.  Pelzer is hurt by being a bit of a perfectionist, constantly tinkering with his delivery, but his mechanics have improved each season.

9 Aaron Poreda, Starting Pitcher, LHP

At 6’6” and 240 lbs. with a mid-90’s fastball; this is a prospect The problem is he frequently has no clue where the pitch is going and doesn’t have the secondary stuff to pitch effectively on the major league level as a starter. If he can regain command of his fastball along with some basic secondary pitches, he has big time potential. But that is a very big “if”.

10 Adys Portillo, Starting Pitcher, RHP

Only 17, he flashed plus stuff, a mid-90’s fastball, but also caught too much of the plate, which was evident with a 1-9 record and 5.13 ERA. Still it’s important to remember, particularly at his age and level, what he could be capable of in a few years is more important than where he is now.

The Next Ten

11. Rymer Liriano, OF, 12. Everett Williams, OF, 13. Keyvius Sampson, Starting Pitcher, RHP, 14. Jeremy McBryde, Starting Pitcher, RHP, 15. Drew Cumberland, SS, 16. Sawyer Carroll, OF, 17. Jerry Sullivan, Starting Pitcher, RHP, 18. James Needy, Starting Pitcher, RHP, 19. Anthony Bass, Starting Pitcher, RHP, 20. Jonathan Galvez, Shortstop/Second Base.

MadFriars.com is a website that covers the San Diego Padres minor league system with daily game reports, coach and player interviews, commentary from the front office and detailed prospect scouting reports.  MadFriars.com visits all of the minor league affiliates throughout the season and provides two or three new pieces of content daily.

For more information on all of the Top 20 prospects visit MadFriars.com.

Pitchers and catchers have reported to Peoria, Arizona for the start of Padres Spring Training 2010.  From Peoria, Padres manager Bud Black reports to 619 Sports about the state of his team in this new exclusive interview.

Which players are primed for a step forward in 2010?  What position battles will be taking place in spring training?  And what concerns Black heading into the season?  Here it all below, only from 619 Sports!

Download audio file (021810-bud-black.mp3)

Padres manager Bud Black announced the 2010 lineup and starting pitching rotation on Wednesday.

Well — sort of.

At a Padres luncheon at the San Diego Hall of Champions, Black and general manager Jed Hoyer talked with fans about offseason moves, keeping Adrian Gonzalez, the start of Spring Training and what the lineup would look like if the season started today.

Black also noted that pitcher Chris Young appears healthy and ready for Spring Training.

“Chris Young is feeling great,” Black said of the starter, who missed much of the 2009 season with a shoulder injury. “He’s throwing off the mound. He’s going to be ready for full activity in the spring. We’re looking forward to him bouncing back.”

Black expects Kevin Correia, newcomer Jon Garland and Clayton Richard to round out the top four of the rotation while second-year fire-baller Mat Latos will compete with Sean Gallagher, Tim Stauffer, Wade Leblanc and Cesar Ramos for the fifth spot.

See the Padres’ projected starting lineup after the jump:

As for the a starting lineup, Black was understandably hesitant to commit to announcing a batting order on Feb. 10, but obliged a fan’s request to project what the lineup would look like for a game today.

Here’s the rundown:
1. Tony Gwynn,  CF
2. David Eckstein, 2B
3. Adrian Gonazlez, 1B
4. Chase Headley, 3B
5. Kyle Blanks, LF
6. Will Venable, RF
7. Nick Hundley, C
8. Everth Cabrera, SS
9. Starting pitcher

With the recent addition of former Colorado catcher Yorvit Torrealba, Black expects Hundley to split time behind the plate.

As for the biggest topic of offseason conversation, Hoyer said that he entertained offers for slugger Adrian Gonzalez, but is glad to still have him on board.

“It’s never difficult to keep a great player,” Hoyer said. “A lot of teams inquired about Adrian, as you’d expect. He’s a great player. Certainly he fits our team perfectly. He’s in the middle of the order – one of the best run producers in the game.

“For us, we listened, but certainly he’s a guy we’re excited to have for at least the next two years.”

See also: A Neat Start For Jed

Black and Hoyer emphasized the team mantra of making measured, calculated roster decisions —  in contrast to the gunslinger label that followed former GM Kevin Towers during his tenure.

Black noted that while Hoyer didn’t make a big-splash trade or free agent signing, he focused on players with attributes that fit cavernous Petco Park — speed and athleticism.

The biggest offseason position move was the Kevin Kouzmanoff trade that netted outfielders Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham.

Pitchers and catchers report to Peoria, Ariz. for Spring Training next Thursday (Feb. 18) while position players report on Feb. 24.

Jason Owens is the SDNN sports editor.

Padres brass gathers at a Petco Park town hall meeting (Photo by Steve Adler)

On a chilly Thursday night, the Padres opened up the gates of Petco Park to fans for an Open House and Town Hall style meeting. Although the number of guests was expected to be around 1,000, more than 3,00o fans showed up for free hot dogs, the opportunity to meet players and a chance to roam the grass in centerfield.

Much of the Padres brass was in attendance. Owner and CEO Jeff Moorad led the evening flanked by GM Jed Hoyer, COO Tom Garfinkel and manager Bud Black.

Their message for the night was consistent and confident: we are here to win.

“We know you are counting on us,” Moorad said from the first base line podium. “Let me reassure you, this ownership has a plan and a passion for winning.”

Even with the recent struggles of the Padres franchise the fans were clear that they expect a winner. When the forum was opened to fan questions the topics ranged from a potential All Star Game at Petco, to a possible trade involving Adrian Gonzalez.

Hoyer responded: “We will never do anything that doesn’t make the team better.”

Whether Gonzalez or any other prominent player will be moved remains to be seen.

Moorad touted the community efforts of John Moores and the former ownership. Moorad mentioned that this group would continue those efforts that the Moores started years ago, and that they desire for a strong baseball community in San Diego.

Fan Fest 2010

The Padres announced on Thursday that the 2010 Fan Fest will take place on February 13th from 10am-5pm. Season ticket holders will be let in an hour early at 9 a.m. It is a free event that is open to the public.

Price Changes at Petco

The 5 for $5 deal will not be returning this season. The Padres have lowered prices throughout the ballpark, though. In 2010 there will be lower ticket prices, lower concession stand prices (beer included) and parking will be cheaper ($10 for season ticket holders).

The Padres will also have an initiative for the 2010 season to honor active duty troops more often. Official deals and ticket offers are expected to be announced within the month.

The slogan at the front door of the Gonzalez Sports Academy in Chula Vista spells out the vision of the training complex:

“Good Athletes Are Born, Great Athletes Are Made.”

Adrian Gonzalez was born a good athlete.  To be made great, Adrian needed to drive out of the South Bay and out to La Jolla or elsewhere in North County to train.  There were no premier facilities in Chula Vista to develop great athletes.

The Gonzalez family is hoping that future generations of South Bay stars will be getting their training much closer to home.  The Gonzalez Sports Academy opened yesterday in Eastlake, a near 30,000 square foot facility featuring indoor batting cages, pitching mounds, volleyball courts, and much more.  Adrian spoke to 619 Sports at the grand opening about what he, his brothers Edgar and David and his family are trying to accomplish with the new complex:

After the jump, watch a video interview with Edgar Gonzalez and check out pictures from the grand opening!

Nick Hundley (far left) and Luke Ramirez (left) share a laugh with Adrian Gonzalez (right) at the opening of the GSA

The stars of South Bay sports were all out in force on Wednesday night.  Adrian joked around with Park View Little League stars Luke Ramirez and Kiko Garcia, while his brother Edgar spoke with Eastlake football head coach John McFadden.  Former USC linebacking great Zeke Moreno was in attendance as well as current Padres catcher Nick Hundley.

Edgar spoke to us about his family’s vision for the Gonzalez Sports Academy as well as his current career plans (Gonzalez has signed to play baseball in Japan this season):

More pictures from the Gonzalez Sports Academy grand opening:

[View with PicLens]

Did you think the Padres were going to spend over 5 million on a free agent pitcher?  Neither did we.  But was the money well spent on 30 year old veteran Jon Garland, or should that cash have gone to a big bat like Xavier Nady?  Get the 619 Sports guys’ take in their latest podcast:

Download audio file (012610-garland-podcast.mp3)

Nobody’s going to send out Peter Gammons for a special report on the Padres’ trade of Kevin Kouzmanoff and signing of Jerry Hairston Jr., but Chris and Craig have taken notice!  The 619 Sports guys talk about the small moves Jed Hoyer has made so far as Padres’ GM, and the potential positive impact of putting the Happy Hairstons in the lineup and moving Chase Headley to third base:

Download audio file (012310-padres-moves.mp3)

UPDATE with Matt Stairs reaction after the jump:

A couple of hours after we recorded this podcast, the Padres agreed to a minor-league contract with Matt Stairs.  Stairs is 42 and hit .194 last year in arguably as good of a ballpark as a major league lefty swinger could ask for, so the first suggestion is to temper any excitement over the move.  At Petco Park, where his lefty gap power will result in a flyball out most of the time, Stairs’ biggest strength may be erased.

This is Cliff Floyd/Tony Clark redux, with the slim advantage that Stairs could possibly run out there into left or right field if he had to.  On a NL team, he will be a pinch-hitter all the time, and as such, at least carries the specter of being a veteran who’s had some huge knocks in the past.

There’s no downside to the move, unless you really, really think Aaron Cunningham deserves a spot on the 25-man roster out of Peoria.  If Stairs is over the hill, he won’t make it out of Spring Training.  If he’s on the big league team, he might get a couple of pinch hits.  If he performs well, expect him to be the first one traded to a contender come July/August.

Jed Hoyer’s first trade as Padres’ general manager is in the books, and Jeff Moorad should be pleased.

Kevin Kouzmanoff and Eric Sogard to the A’s for Scott Hairston and Aaron Cunningham is clean and simple.  No gunslinging here.  More like reorganizing the closet.  A couple little changes, add a shelf, voila!  A more balanced roster free of a growing salary concern.

Kouz was about to be valued more than he’s worth.  Solid defense aside, Kouzmanoff managed just 88 RBI hitting behind Adrian Gonzalez.  He’s one of those good-but-not-great players that can fit in on a winning team but can’t help rebuild a bad team.

His gaudy minor league OBP numbers never materialized in the big leagues, and as a .300 on-base occasional slugger, Kouz seemed better fit as a 7-9 hitter in an AL lineup than a 4-5 hitter in the NL.  Now he’ll get that chance to find his niche.

Throw in arbitration, the natural desire for the Padres to return Chase Headley to his natural position, the growth of Kyle Blanks as an outfield prospect, and the need for a right-handed platoon partner for Tony Gwynn in center field…and then the chance comes to swap Kouzmanoff for Hairston.  Perfect.

Hairston fits well into the Padres' outfield

Scott Hairston is a good fourth outfielder, and that’s what he projects to be on the 2010 Padres.  He will be primarily discussed as a right-handed batting center fielder, but I could easily see him grab ABs in both corner outfield positions as well.  When he gets hot and starts hitting homers against the Giants again, Bud Black will ride him for a while, and when he strikes out 12 times in a week, he’ll get some time off.

More importantly, Hairston is inexpensive (just over $1M last year), while Kouzmanoff is a rising variable.  The Padres’ signing of Heath Bell to a 1-year, 4-million dollar deal on the same day they trade Kouz is not coincidental.

Jed Hoyer needed to move Kouzmanoff this offseason, and while Kevin Towers might have tried to flip Kouz for a prospect with crazy upside (the mere fact that this deal does not return an arm to San Diego lets you know for sure the Towers era has ended), Hoyer made a clean and mostly neutral trade that answers questions at two positions and still leaves the Padres with their biggest trade chips in place.

My only possible concern with this deal could come from the two minor leaguers involved.  Eric Sogard had a nice walk rate in the minors and is a 24-year-old lefty-swinging second baseman.  Aaron Cunningham is another right-handed outfielder who will probably be entertaining the fans in Portland and the PCL with little impact in San Diego.  Hopefully Hoyer didn’t let a good one slip away in Sogard.

Still, for the first time out, it looks like Hoyer’s killed three birds with one stone, clearing up third base and left field while simultaneously adding a useful roster piece in Hairston.  Nice job, Jed.